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Beware the $600 billion gorilla...
“…the disaster back in the 1920's, My children, was as nothing compared to what will happen now. I talk of a great depression coming upon mankind." - Jesus, October 1, 1988
The Sydney [Australia] Morning Herald reported on December 19, 2006:
As the new kid on the economic superpower block, China has become something of a whipping boy for the ills of the global economy.
Whether it's competition from its exports, the size of its current account surplus or the undervaluation of its currency, China is the high-profile villain in the debate over global trade and financial imbalances - about which Australia's other great and powerful friend, the US, in particular is getting hot under the collar.
Only last week a high-powered US delegation, led by Treasury secretary Henry Paulson and including Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, was in Beijing to pressure China to reduce its $US200 billion ($255 billion) annual current account surplus and accelerate its freeing-up of the yuan.
But it's as if there are two elephants in the room and we only choose to see one.
As a number of analysts, including ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake, are now pointing out, while all eyes are on China another big and potentially more destabilising force in the global economy is emerging - what the Economist magazine recently dubbed Petrodollar Power.
This is the capital market flip-side of the oil price surge of recent years, which has pumped up the trade revenues, and, consequently the foreign asset holdings, of the oil powers of the Middle East and other producers such as Russia.
This new pool of petrodollars has added to the huge amount of money sloshing around the global financial system, which is helping to drive up sharemarkets and property prices as well as pumping liquidity into hedge funds and the private equity behind the takeover tsunami now washing over the Australian corporate landscape.
The current account surpluses and capital flows associated with them are also contributing to the imbalances in the global economy for which China is copping so much flak.
As Eslake points out, in contrast to the enormous political attention devoted to developing East Asian nations such as China, "very little attention has been paid to the emergence of an even larger pool of capital in recent recent years among oil exporting nations".
IMF figures show that whereas East Asian surpluses will reach about $US400 billion this year and next, the surpluses of the non-OECD oil producers will top $US500 billion this year and $US550 billion in 2007. Add in the OECD oil nations of Canada and Norway and they could exceed $US600 billion in 2006 and 2007.
The Economist, citing the same IMF figures, points out that the cumulative surpluses of the oil exporters will be around $US1.7 trillion in the five years to 2007, dwarfing China's $US700 billion.
As Eslake says, there are now four countries running annual surpluses in excess of $US100 billion. Two are East Asian - China and Japan - and two are oil powers, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
And among the world's top 20 surplus nations are Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Iran and Venezuela, all big oil producers.
This selective blindness extends to a tolerance of exchange rate regimes in these countries which are more rigid than the one for which China is coming under pressure.
While China is moving, albeit slowly, towards a more flexible exchange rate regime, many of the oil producers, including the super-surplus states of Saudi Arabia and Russia, peg their currencies to the US dollar - and they are arguably more undervalued than the yuan.
The argument against such regimes is that by undervaluing currencies compared to the level justified by their trade fundamentals, demand for imports is suppressed, their exports are more competitive than they should be (including in the US, which is why the yuan is such a political issue there), current account surpluses are bigger than they should be, inflation and asset price bubbles are created and global capital flows distorted. In other words, it impedes the correction of the current account imbalances across the global economy which economists and policy makers worry are unsustainable.
Yet, as Eslake notes: "How many pieces of legislation have been tabled in the US Congress demanding 'regime change' from their central banks on pain of punitive tariffs and quotas? Ah, but they sell oil to the Americans, not T-shirts!"
This phenomenon raises important issues for the stability of the global financial system. . Big capital outflows from East Asia - the flipside of their current account surpluses - have played an important role in the global system. The outflows have overwhelmingly been used to accumulate official reserves - foreign currency held as securities, notably US Treasury bonds.
Between 1999 and 2005, Asian central banks (excluding Japan) built up around $US1.25 trillion in reserves and have added another $US350 billion or so this year. In so doing they accounted for the bulk of the total foreign central bank purchases of US Treasuries. In other words, they were helping to fund the US budget deficit - up to two thirds of it in 2003 and 2004, Eslake suggests.
"They were in effect running the largest vendor financing scheme in the world - lending to US consumers, via the US budget the money that American consumers need to keep borrowing so that they can keep buying the stuff that Asian countries need to keep selling to them so that they can continue to enjoy export-led growth," he says.
One concern is that the US dollar would be badly undermined if these Asian central banks sharply reduced this heavy exposure by diversifying their holdings - ironically producing a capital loss for them on their remaining Treasuries - which could have knock-on effects through the global economy, including in Australia.
But if anything, the semi-secret investment funds of the oil exporters are much more likely to get out of their depreciating US dollar holdings than is China's central bank.
And many of these countries - Iran and Libya for example - have much more difficult political relationships with the US than China and the rest of East Asia.
As Eslake concludes: "A key question for the stability of the global financial system therefore is, how likely is it that these new financial powers will play the role of 'lender of last resort' to the United States, as Asian central banks did in 2002-2004, should that again become necessary?"
"My child and My
children, the days will grow darker, and there will be hunger in your land. Yes,
My child, what I brought you here for this evening is to tell the world that
there will be a crash in the monetary doings of your government—an absolute
crash that will affect every man, woman, and child in the United States and
Canada, and then, like a serpent, creep all over Europe, until the world sees
one big, massive depression. I can illustrate to you, My children, what I mean
by this monetary depression.
"Should you go and wish to buy a small instrument, even a guitar, that We
hear plucking away at the dervishly, and devilry, of what is called the musical
Mass, strung by guitars, and other creations of satan. My child, I go on to tell
you, you will say that the guitar is not a costly item, but in order to buy this
guitar you will carry an actual satchel, an overnight bag-size, My child—let Us
put it that way clearly—of notes, your currency. It will take a whole suitcase
of paper—paper money that no longer has a value. You will soon be reduced to
bartering for your food.
"My child, I know you are affrighted at this word 'war'; 'death', 'turmoil',
'depression', but what can I do but tell you the truth. I cannot smooth over it,
for I would be accepted like those upon earth who like ostriches, they walk
about, proud in their scientific knowledge." - Our Lady of the Roses,
September 7, 1985
The awesome Bayside Prophecies...
https://www.tldm.org/Bayside/default.htm
These prophecies came from Jesus, Mary, and the saints to Veronica
Lueken at Bayside, NY, from 1968 to 1995:
A godless nation shall
fall! . . .
"Without
My Son you are lost. A godless nation shall fall. A nation that has been eaten
away and rotted by sin shall fall. A nation that has turned itself back and
regressed to a state of animal living bordering on all sins of the flesh and
impurity; given over to all manner of seeking things of the world; power, lust,
envy, hate, murders, abortions, worship of false idols; loving money, power, and
lacking the instinct of survival when survival can only be reached by pleading
from them to the merciful heart of the Eternal Father." - Our Lady, June
13, 1981
A great money disaster . . .
"My child and My children, pray a constant vigilance of
prayer. Keep this going throughout the United States and all of the nations of
the world, for there is little time left. Soon, in the plans of the Eternal
Father, He shall set forth and allow to come upon mankind, a great money
disaster. In this way it will prove to you that the disaster back in the
1920's, My children, was as nothing compared to what will happen now. I talk of
a great depression coming upon mankind." - Jesus, October 1, 1988
Destruction of the world monetary systems . . .
"You
will understand and broadcast the message to the world that there will be a
great destruction in the monetary systems of the world. It will affect both the
United States and Canada, and all the great powers of the world. And I repeat
again: You will go to your stores to do your shopping carrying papers which may
as well be newspapers, for the value they will have to purchase even food will
be nil.
"How can a great country like the United States fall, you say, My child?
You ask Me in your heart. I read your heart. I will tell you why. Because they
have given themselves over to satan. When a country has lost its morality and
seeks the pleasures of the flesh, giving over, themselves over, to all manner of
abominations, like homosexuality, and condoning this up the highest courts of
the land, then that country shall fall." - Our Lady, November 1, 1985
Gathering of the world's
money to control the masses . . .
"Man
shall not create a new world as he seeks. For there cannot be a lasting world
without His God. And I speak not of the false idols and gods that man creates
in his human nature! There is only one Creator.
"You who cast aside this knowledge and choose to set yourselves up by power
and the gathering of the world's money to control the masses, you will find that
all of your power and all of your volumes of gold and silver cannot hold back
the heavens as they descend upon you in a just chastisement. The world, the
earth shall tremble, fear shall come upon mankind as he watches the approach of
the destruction that he himself has chosen to set loose." - Jesus,
February 10, 1978
Evil force like an
octopus . . .
"There is a great evil force now enshrouding your world; it is like an octopus
reaching out in every direction to ensnare the world. It is a force of evil set
up by satan. There are many arms of the octopus controlled by the monies of the
world.
"For the love of money and riches, many will sell their souls to get to the
head. O My children, what do you gain if you gather all of the riches of the
world and destroy your soul. When you come over the veil, and you will come over
the veil, what will you bring with you - nothing of the material. You must
gather your riches in Heaven now. They are supernatural: the graces, the merits
that will allow you to enter into the Kingdom of
your
God." - Our Lady, June 24, 1976
The Illuminati . . .
"There is a group in the United States and the world, a
group that started many years ago, calling itself the Illuminati, coming from
the word 'light bearer'. Naturally, My children, this light that they bear
stands for Lucifer, and as such they have gone through the world secretly known
as Luciferians. They have brought into your country, the United States, and
your neighbor Canada, a group of witchcraft practices. Well have they laid
their plan to destroy your children with drugs, using your school systems, your
medias of communication, your newspapers, your televisions, your radios: every
means of communication has been infiltrated by the member and sub-members of the
Illuminati, a conglomeration of individuals and powers and principalities
throughout the world, and banking systems. As you well know, My children, money
has always been the root of all evil, and many have sold their souls to get to
the head." - Our Lady, November 25, 1978
You are worshiping idols . . .
"My children, you must change your values back to the plan of your God. As a
nation, as a country, as in many countries throughout the world, you have become
paganized and immoral. My children, it is the gauge for the fall of mankind:
immorality and paganism. No nation shall stand without its God, the God in
Heaven.
"Man is creating many new gods, gods to feed his human nature; and it is a
basic carnal nature. Idolaters abound. When you worship in abundance things, My
children, you are worshiping idols! If you spend your time gathering things,
money, power, you are worshiping idols. Remove yourself from these worldly
pursuits.
"It is a narrow road to the Kingdom of your God, Heaven. Many are called
but few are chosen. The road with satan is wide. Many walk it and can never
leave, because there are too few prayers said for them and by them.
"Nothing is impossible to your God. Man shall never reach the highest
pinnacle of Heaven in knowledge." - Jesus, March 18, 1978
Many will sell their
souls to get to the head . . .
"The road to
Heaven, My children, is a narrow one; too few stay upon it. For they are
often carried away with the cares of the world, and the pleasures of the
materialistic pursuits, and their gathering of money and prestige and power.
For what? For the few short years allotted to each human upon earth.
I ask you to ask yourself: is it worth it to lose your soul? Many will
sell their souls to get to the head." - Our Lady, November 20, 1979
Gather your graces . . .
"You cannot accept
two masters. One you will love, and the other you will learn to hate. And
remember, My children, where your treasures are, your heart will always lie. And
better that you gather your treasures in a place where there is neither rusting,
nor attacks by moths, and robbers cannot take them from you. Store your
treasures in Heaven, My children. Gather your graces. You must ransom your soul
and the souls of your children, your households. Do not wait expecting to be
repatriated at the last moment, My children. Many are coming across the veil
unprepared, and, sadly, they cannot be accepted into the Kingdom." - Jesus,
August 5, 1977
Store canned goods,
water and blankets . . .
"My children, I caution you now, and I wish that you remember these
instructions from several years ago in earth's time that I gave to you, to keep
in your homes a good supply of canned good. They have shelf value, My children,
they will not spoil. But better that you keep them and they spoil than to have
come upon you the great Chastisement. It will be a ball of fire which will
ignite many of the chemicals that are being stored up for the destruction of the
nations.
"My children, not only with the canned foods will you store just food, but
you must also make known to your families and your friends that they had best
keep blankets and water in tight containers; for there will be on the onset of
the Chastisement, there will be nothing that you can buy due to contamination."
- Our Lady, July 1, 1985
See the Bayside Prophecies:
September 7, 1985 message -- World monetary
crash: "One massive depression"
(click here)
Articles...
Oil producers shun the dollar; Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling
https://www.tldm.org/News9/OilProducersShunDollar.htmU.S. dollar plunges to 15-year low
https://www.tldm.org/News9/DollarPlungesTo15YearLow.htmU.S. Comptroller General warns the nation of economic calamity
https://www.tldm.org/news9/MonetaryCrashComptrollerGeneral.htmCentral banks caught in gold squeeze may crush dollar
https://www.tldm.org/News9/goldSqueezeMayCrushDollar.htm
Links:
Iran seeks to replace dollar with euro, December 18, 2006
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061218/wl_mideast_afp/iranforexbank_061218114517Real U.S. shortfall: $4.6 trillion in red, WorldNetDaily, December 17, 2006
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53413U.S. dollar facing imminent collapse? WorldNetDaily, December 10, 2006
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53311USA Today report: Real federal deficit 3.5 trillion, Newsmax, August 3, 2006
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/8/3/123820.shtml?s=lh
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The sin of omission... "The sin of omission shall condemn many to hell, be they layman or Hierarchy. I repeat: not the sin of commission, but the sin of omission will commit many to hell." Our Lady of the Roses, October 6, 1980
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