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The worst isn't over in mortgage meltdown...
“… the disaster back in the 1920's, My children, was as nothing compared to what will happen now. I talk of a great depression coming upon mankind." - Jesus, October 1, 1988
SignOnSanDiego.com reported on July 15, 2007:
When the Standard & Poor's and Moody's ratings services lowered the boom on mortgage-backed securities last week, the second shoe finally dropped on the real estate market.
The first shoe dropped earlier this year, when a bevy of mortgage firms went bankrupt after helping far too many unqualified borrowers buy homes.
With last week's action, two of Wall Street's most respected firms acknowledged that the problems associated with those “subprime” borrowers will be much worse than they previously thought. S&P and Moody's warned they may cut the credit ratings of more than $12 billion in mortgage-backed bonds issued by such respected names as Citigroup, Lehman Bros. and Merrill Lynch.
In the past couple of months, several large investment funds that loaded their portfolios with mortgage-backed securities have been burned, led by Bear Stearns and Dillon Read. On a much-smaller scale, Brookstreet Securities in Irvine imploded late last month because of an overnight drop in the value of its mortgage-heavy investments.
“Disaster,” “horrible” and “horrendous” were among the words that Brookstreet founder Stanley Brooks used to describe the crash of his firm, which had 730 or so agents nationwide, including about a dozen in San Diego County.
Richard Eckert, a subprime-mortgage analyst at Roth Capital in Newport Beach, says as much as $75 billion could be lost on mortgage securities because of the subprime meltdown. He said many of the bigger investors would be able to withstand the losses, but smaller investors could be wiped out.
“As I have been writing for years, the biggest losers in the real estate bubble will not be the borrowers who took advantage of easy credit, but the lenders who foolishly underwrote the loans,” says Peter Schiff, who heads Euro Pacific Capital in Newport Beach. “Whether they be unsophisticated clients of small brokerage firms like Brookstreet, or big-time hedge fund clients of Bear Stearns, anyone who owns subprime mortgages is going to lose money.”
Now that the second shoe has dropped, does that mean the worst will soon be over? Not at all. The real estate market is not a two-legged creature. Instead, it's more like a well-shod caterpillar, capable of dropping any number of shoes over the next year or so.
So far, foreclosures have been centered in the subprime market, involving home buyers who would not have qualified for loans under traditional lending standards. Many of those buyers were enticed through “teaser rates” – temporary rock-bottom interest rates. They typically bought their homes using adjustable-rate mortgages, making little or no down payment and paying little or no principal on the loan.
Until the past couple of years, there was enough momentum in the real estate market so that when unqualified borrowers went into default, many of them could still sell their homes for at least a break-even price.
At the peak of the market in 2005, only 13 percent of defaulted mortgages in California went into foreclosure. This year, the number is closer to 40 percent and it seems likely to top the highs of 55 percent seen in 1983, at the tail end of a recession.
The influx of subprime foreclosures will continue to weaken home prices through 2008. S&P now forecasts that by the first quarter of 2008, the typical home price will have declined 8 percent since 2006. That would be the largest drop in postwar history, outstripping the 6.9 percent drop during the recession of the early 1990s.
And that's a national average. In some overpriced areas – such as San Diego County – the fall may be more precipitous. Already, the county has nearly eight months of inventory on the market. The number of homes that have gone into default or foreclosure in the past year has tripled, rising from 842 in June 2006 to 2,564 last month.
“The housing downturn is really knocking the wind out of the San Diego economy, almost totally on its own,” says Scott Anderson, economist for Wells Fargo Bank.
If the rise in subprime foreclosures is the third shoe to drop, a fourth may be a rise in foreclosures of prime and Alt-A mortgages. (Alt-A loans are a step above subprime.) Many of these borrowers took out the same types of risky loans as the subprime borrowers. And even though they have a bit more money to cushion them, many will find it hard to keep paying their adjustable mortgages as interest rates ratchet up.
“There's no doubt that there will be a tremendous increase in foreclosures,” says Bruce Norris, who heads the Norris Group, a real estate investment firm in Riverside. “I'm not being negative, just very realistic. This is a mathematical certainty at this point.”
Norris says that at the top of the market, there were 18 consecutive months marked by a large percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages and other relatively risky loans. That suggests it will take at least 18 months for the problems associated with those loans to be resolved, through foreclosures and “short sales,” in which the borrower sells the home at a loss to the lender.
San Diego real estate adviser Dan Holbrook has carved a niche for himself by holding seminars to tell real estate agents how they can profit from short sales.
In a recent letter to agents, Holbrook said the “next wave of distress” will come as certain adjustable-rate mortgages and negative-amortization loans adjust, “rocketing payments above levels many consumers can afford. The majority of these loans will adjust in the next 6-24 months.”
Some voices within the industry say that San Diego will have enough demand for houses to keep prices relatively high. But Wells Fargo economist Anderson punctures holes in that notion.
Anderson notes that the growth rate for employment in the county has been slowing since it peaked in the late 1990s. In 1997 and 1998, local payrolls were growing at close to 5 percent per year. In contrast, for the past five years, local jobs have been growing less than 2 percent per year. This year, Anderson says, jobs will grow only about half a percent.
Similarly, local population growth has become increasingly sluggish, partly because the high home prices have discouraged people from moving in. Each year since 2003, more people have moved out of San Diego than have moved in from elsewhere in the country. Anderson projects that trend will continue at least through 2008.
Theoretically, the slowdown in jobs and population should have slowed the demand for housing, softening prices. Instead, prices went sky-high and home building did not reach a peak until 2003.
Why the disconnect? Blame the collapse of the dot-com revolution. When Wall Street tanked in 2000 and as dot-com stocks went down in flames, investors began seeking new places to park their cash. Some invested in real estate, snapping up second homes in popular places like San Diego and Florida. Others invested in mortgage-backed securities, keeping mortgage rates dirt-cheap.
“Is it any wonder house prices rose so high when Wall Street allowed so many people to gamble with other people's money?” Schiff says. “If borrowers actually had to put their own hard-earned money down, they would have thought twice before committing themselves to mortgages they could not afford. But once Wall Street took all of the risk out of real estate speculation, there was no reason not to roll the dice.”
Now that the dice have come up snake eyes on the housing market, other shoes will probably be dropping soon. Retail sales, which are plummeting at places like Home Depot and Sears, seem likely to decline further as defaulting home buyers cut down on their big-ticket purchases. In June, retail sales excluding gasoline fell 0.9 percent.
If retail sales continue to fall, adding to the declines in construction and real estate employment, unemployment could start to rise. The Norris Group's latest real estate market report presents a feasible scenario in which unemployment in California rises above 8 percent, compared with its current level of 5.2 percent.
Schiff says the biggest shoe to drop will come if foreign investors – who have been losing money on mortgage-backed securities – begin pulling out of the United States in general.
“It will not be long before our foreign creditors realize that Uncle Sam is the biggest subprime borrower of them all and will similarly mark down the value of its debts,” he says.
"My child and My
children, the days will grow darker, and there will be hunger in your land. Yes,
My child, what I brought you here for this evening is to tell the world that
there will be a crash in the monetary doings of your government—an absolute
crash that will affect every man, woman, and child in the United States and
Canada, and then, like a serpent, creep all over Europe, until the world sees
one big, massive depression. I can illustrate to you, My children, what I mean
by this monetary depression.
"Should you go and wish to buy a small instrument, even a guitar, that We
hear plucking away at the dervishly, and devilry, of what is called the musical
Mass, strung by guitars, and other creations of satan. My child, I go on to tell
you, you will say that the guitar is not a costly item, but in order to buy this
guitar you will carry an actual satchel, an overnight bag-size, My child—let Us
put it that way clearly—of notes, your currency. It will take a whole suitcase
of paper—paper money that no longer has a value. You will soon be reduced to
bartering for your food.
"My child, I know you are affrighted at this word 'war'; 'death', 'turmoil',
'depression', but what can I do but tell you the truth. I cannot smooth over it,
for I would be accepted like those upon earth who like ostriches, they walk
about, proud in their scientific knowledge." - Our Lady of the Roses,
September 7, 1985
The awesome Bayside Prophecies...
https://www.tldm.org/Bayside/default.htm
These prophecies came from Jesus, Mary, and the saints to Veronica
Lueken at Bayside, NY, from 1968 to 1995:
A godless nation shall
fall! . . .
"Without
My Son you are lost. A godless nation shall fall. A nation that has been eaten
away and rotted by sin shall fall. A nation that has turned itself back and
regressed to a state of animal living bordering on all sins of the flesh and
impurity; given over to all manner of seeking things of the world; power, lust,
envy, hate, murders, abortions, worship of false idols; loving money, power, and
lacking the instinct of survival when survival can only be reached by pleading
from them to the merciful heart of the Eternal Father." - Our Lady, June
13, 1981
A great money disaster . . .
"My child and My children, pray a constant vigilance of
prayer. Keep this going throughout the United States and all of the nations of
the world, for there is little time left. Soon, in the plans of the Eternal
Father, He shall set forth and allow to come upon mankind, a great money
disaster. In this way it will prove to you that the disaster back in the
1920's, My children, was as nothing compared to what will happen now. I talk of
a great depression coming upon mankind." - Jesus, October 1, 1988
Destruction of the world monetary systems . . .
"You
will understand and broadcast the message to the world that there will be a
great destruction in the monetary systems of the world. It will affect both the
United States and Canada, and all the great powers of the world. And I repeat
again: You will go to your stores to do your shopping carrying papers which may
as well be newspapers, for the value they will have to purchase even food will
be nil.
"How can a great country like the United States fall, you say, My child?
You ask Me in your heart. I read your heart. I will tell you why. Because they
have given themselves over to satan. When a country has lost its morality and
seeks the pleasures of the flesh, giving over, themselves over, to all manner of
abominations, like homosexuality, and condoning this up the highest courts of
the land, then that country shall fall." - Our Lady, November 1, 1985
Gathering of the world's
money to control the masses . . .
"Man
shall not create a new world as he seeks. For there cannot be a lasting world
without His God. And I speak not of the false idols and gods that man creates
in his human nature! There is only one Creator.
"You who cast aside this knowledge and choose to set yourselves up by power
and the gathering of the world's money to control the masses, you will find that
all of your power and all of your volumes of gold and silver cannot hold back
the heavens as they descend upon you in a just chastisement. The world, the
earth shall tremble, fear shall come upon mankind as he watches the approach of
the destruction that he himself has chosen to set loose." - Jesus,
February 10, 1978
Evil force like an
octopus . . .
"There is a great evil force now enshrouding your world; it is like an octopus
reaching out in every direction to ensnare the world. It is a force of evil set
up by satan. There are many arms of the octopus controlled by the monies of the
world.
"For the love of money and riches, many will sell their souls to get to the
head. O My children, what do you gain if you gather all of the riches of the
world and destroy your soul. When you come over the veil, and you will come over
the veil, what will you bring with you - nothing of the material. You must
gather your riches in Heaven now. They are supernatural: the graces, the merits
that will allow you to enter into the Kingdom of
your
God." - Our Lady, June 24, 1976
The Illuminati . . .
"There is a group in the United States and the world, a
group that started many years ago, calling itself the Illuminati, coming from
the word 'light bearer'. Naturally, My children, this light that they bear
stands for Lucifer, and as such they have gone through the world secretly known
as Luciferians. They have brought into your country, the United States, and
your neighbor Canada, a group of witchcraft practices. Well have they laid
their plan to destroy your children with drugs, using your school systems, your
medias of communication, your newspapers, your televisions, your radios: every
means of communication has been infiltrated by the member and sub-members of the
Illuminati, a conglomeration of individuals and powers and principalities
throughout the world, and banking systems. As you well know, My children, money
has always been the root of all evil, and many have sold their souls to get to
the head." - Our Lady, November 25, 1978
You are worshiping idols . . .
"My children, you must change your values back to the plan of your God. As a
nation, as a country, as in many countries throughout the world, you have become
paganized and immoral. My children, it is the gauge for the fall of mankind:
immorality and paganism. No nation shall stand without its God, the God in
Heaven.
"Man is creating many new gods, gods to feed his human nature; and it is a
basic carnal nature. Idolaters abound. When you worship in abundance things, My
children, you are worshiping idols! If you spend your time gathering things,
money, power, you are worshiping idols. Remove yourself from these worldly
pursuits.
"It is a narrow road to the Kingdom of your God, Heaven. Many are called
but few are chosen. The road with satan is wide. Many walk it and can never
leave, because there are too few prayers said for them and by them.
"Nothing is impossible to your God. Man shall never reach the highest
pinnacle of Heaven in knowledge." - Jesus, March 18, 1978
Many will sell their
souls to get to the head . . .
"The road to
Heaven, My children, is a narrow one; too few stay upon it. For they are
often carried away with the cares of the world, and the pleasures of the
materialistic pursuits, and their gathering of money and prestige and power.
For what? For the few short years allotted to each human upon earth.
I ask you to ask yourself: is it worth it to lose your soul? Many will
sell their souls to get to the head." - Our Lady, November 20, 1979
Gather your graces . . .
"You cannot accept
two masters. One you will love, and the other you will learn to hate. And
remember, My children, where your treasures are, your heart will always lie. And
better that you gather your treasures in a place where there is neither rusting,
nor attacks by moths, and robbers cannot take them from you. Store your
treasures in Heaven, My children. Gather your graces. You must ransom your soul
and the souls of your children, your households. Do not wait expecting to be
repatriated at the last moment, My children. Many are coming across the veil
unprepared, and, sadly, they cannot be accepted into the Kingdom." - Jesus,
August 5, 1977
Store canned goods,
water and blankets . . .
"My children, I caution you now, and I wish that you remember these
instructions from several years ago in earth's time that I gave to you, to keep
in your homes a good supply of canned good. They have shelf value, My children,
they will not spoil. But better that you keep them and they spoil than to have
come upon you the great Chastisement. It will be a ball of fire which will
ignite many of the chemicals that are being stored up for the destruction of the
nations.
"My children, not only with the canned foods will you store just food, but
you must also make known to your families and your friends that they had best
keep blankets and water in tight containers; for there will be on the onset of
the Chastisement, there will be nothing that you can buy due to contamination."
- Our Lady, July 1, 1985
Read the Bayside Prophecies:
Articles...
Slow demise of the mighty greenback
https://www.tldm.org/News11/DemiseOfMightyGreenback.htmCredit spree could cause 1930s-style depression
https://www.tldm.org/News11/CreditSpreeCouldCauseDepression.htmGloom gathers over U.S. economy
https://www.tldm.org/News10/GloomGathersUSEconomy.htmIt’s official: The crash of the U.S. economy has begun
https://www.tldm.org/News10/CrashOfUSEconomyHasBegun.htmThe plan to destroy America - via the dollar
https://www.tldm.org/News9/PlanToDestroyAmericaViaDollar.htmOil producers shun the dollar; Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling
https://www.tldm.org/News9/OilProducersShunDollar.htmU.S. dollar plunges to 15-year low
https://www.tldm.org/News9/DollarPlungesTo15YearLow.htmU.S. Comptroller General warns the nation of economic calamity
https://www.tldm.org/news9/MonetaryCrashComptrollerGeneral.htmCentral banks caught in gold squeeze may crush dollar
https://www.tldm.org/News9/goldSqueezeMayCrushDollar.htm
Links...
Risky home loans run a fever, and the market prays it doesn't spread, U.S. News and World Report, July 15, 2007
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/070715/23subprime.htmU.S. dollar facing imminent collapse? WorldNetDaily, December 10, 2006
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53311USA Today report: Real federal deficit 3.5 trillion, Newsmax, August 3, 2006
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/8/3/123820.shtml?s=lh
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Your names have been written in Heaven… "It is not by accident that you are called by My Mother, for your names have been written in Heaven.... But with this great grace you have great responsibility to send this Message from Heaven throughout the world, for if you are able to recover just one more for Heaven, an additional star shall be placed in your crown." - Jesus, August 5, 1975
A great obligation to go forward... "It is not by accident that you are called by My Mother, for it is by merit and the prayers that have risen to Heaven for your salvation. For those who have received the grace to hear the Message from Heaven, you have a great obligation to go forward and bring this Message to your brothers and sisters. Do not expect a rest upon your earth, for you will have eternal rest very soon." - Jesus, June 12, 1976
The sin of omission... "The sin of omission shall condemn many to hell, be they layman or Hierarchy. I repeat: not the sin of commission, but the sin of omission will commit many to hell." Our Lady of the Roses, October 6, 1980
We encourage everyone to print or email copies of this web page to all the Bishops and all the clergy. Also, email or send this web page to the news media and as many people as possible.
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