America's economy risks the mother of all meltdowns

Professor Roubini first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is "a rising probability of a 'catastrophic' financial and economic outcome"

America's economy risks the mother of all meltdowns...

"Yes, My child, what I brought you here for this evening is to tell the world that there will be a crash in the monetary doings of your government—an absolute crash that will affect every man, woman, and child in the United States and Canada, and then, like a serpent, creep all over Europe, until the world sees one big, massive depression." - Our Lady of the Roses, September 7, 1985

The Financial Times reported on February 19, 2008:

"I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth - lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy." Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.

That used to be Mr Greenspan's view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? To answer this question we should ask a true bear. My favourite one is Nouriel Roubini of New York University's Stern School of Business, founder of RGE monitor.

Recently, Professor Roubini's scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is "a rising probability of a 'catastrophic' financial and economic outcome"**. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: "A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe."

Prof Roubini is even fonder of lists than I am. Here are his 12 - yes, 12 - steps to financial disaster.

Step 1 is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.

Step 2 would be further losses, beyond the $250bn-$300bn now estimated, for subprime mortgages. About 60 per cent of all mortgage origination between 2005 and 2007 had "reckless or toxic features", argues Prof Roubini. Goldman Sachs estimates mortgage losses at $400bn. But if home prices fell by more than 20 per cent, losses would be bigger. That would further impair the banks' ability to offer credit.

Step 3 would be big losses on unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and so forth. The "credit crunch" would then spread from mortgages to a wide range of consumer credit.

Step 4 would be the downgrading of the monoline insurers, which do not deserve the AAA rating on which their business depends. A further $150bn writedown of asset-backed securities would then ensue.

Step 5 would be the meltdown of the commercial property market.

Step 6 would be bankruptcy of a large regional or national bank.

Step 7 would be big losses on reckless leveraged buy-outs. Hundreds of billions of dollars of such loans are now stuck on the balance sheets of financial institutions.

Step 8 would be a wave of corporate defaults. On average, US companies are in decent shape, but a "fat tail" of companies has low profitability and heavy debt. Such defaults would spread losses in "credit default swaps", which insure such debt. The losses could be $250bn. Some insurers might go bankrupt.

Step 9 would be a meltdown in the "shadow financial system". Dealing with the distress of hedge funds, special investment vehicles and so forth will be made more difficult by the fact that they have no direct access to lending from central banks.

Step 10 would be a further collapse in stock prices. Failures of hedge funds, margin calls and shorting could lead to cascading falls in prices.

Step 11 would be a drying-up of liquidity in a range of financial markets, including interbank and money markets. Behind this would be a jump in concerns about solvency.

Step 12 would be "a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices".

These, then, are 12 steps to meltdown. In all, argues Prof Roubini: "Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1,000bn and the economic recession will become deeper more protracted and severe." This, he suggests, is the "nightmare scenario" keeping Ben Bernanke and colleagues at the US Federal Reserve awake. It explains why, having failed to appreciate the dangers for so long, the Fed has lowered rates by 200 basis points this year. This is insurance against a financial meltdown.

Is this kind of scenario at least plausible? It is. Furthermore, we can be confident that it would, if it came to pass, end all stories about "decoupling". If it lasts six quarters, as Prof Roubini warns, offsetting policy action in the rest of the world would be too little, too late.

Can the Fed head this danger off? In a subsequent piece, Prof Roubini gives eight reasons why it cannot***. (He really loves lists!) These are, in brief: US monetary easing is constrained by risks to the dollar and inflation; aggressive easing deals only with illiquidity, not insolvency; the monoline insurers will lose their credit ratings, with dire consequences; overall losses will be too large for sovereign wealth funds to deal with; public intervention is too small to stabilize housing losses; the Fed cannot address the problems of the shadow financial system; regulators cannot find a good middle way between transparency over losses and regulatory forbearance, both of which are needed; and, finally, the transactions-oriented financial system is itself in deep crisis.

The risks are indeed high and the ability of the authorities to deal with them more limited than most people hope. This is not to suggest that there are no ways out. Unfortunately, they are poisonous ones. In the last resort, governments resolve financial crises. This is an iron law. Rescues can occur via overt government assumption of bad debt, inflation, or both. Japan chose the first, much to the distaste of its ministry of finance. But Japan is a creditor country whose savers have complete confidence in the solvency of their government. The US, however, is a debtor. It must keep the trust of foreigners. Should it fail to do so, the inflationary solution becomes probable. This is quite enough to explain why gold costs $920 an ounce.

The connection between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers, for the US and the rest of the world. The US public sector is now coming to the rescue, led by the Fed. In the end, they will succeed. But the journey is likely to be wretchedly uncomfortable.

*A Coming Recession in the US Economy? July 17 2006, www.rgemonitor.com; **The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown, February 5 2008; ***Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown? Most Likely Not, February 8 2008

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"You will understand and broadcast the message to the world that there will be a great destruction in the monetary systems of the world. It will affect both the United States and Canada, and all the great powers of the world." - Our Lady of the Roses, November 1, 1985

"My child and My children, the days will grow darker, and there will be hunger in your land. Yes, My child, what I brought you here for this evening is to tell the world that there will be a crash in the monetary doings of your government—an absolute crash that will affect every man, woman, and child in the United States and Canada, and then, like a serpent, creep all over Europe, until the world sees one big, massive depression. I can illustrate to you, My children, what I mean by this monetary depression.
"Should you go and wish to buy a small instrument, even a guitar, that We hear plucking away at the dervishly, and devilry, of what is called the musical Mass, strung by guitars, and other creations of satan. My child, I go on to tell you, you will say that the guitar is not a costly item, but in order to buy this guitar you will carry an actual satchel, an overnight bag-size, My child—let Us put it that way clearly—of notes, your currency. It will take a whole suitcase of paper—paper money that no longer has a value. You will soon be reduced to bartering for your food.
"My child, I know you are affrighted at this word 'war'; 'death', 'turmoil', 'depression', but what can I do but tell you the truth. I cannot smooth over it, for I would be accepted like those upon earth who like ostriches, they walk about, proud in their scientific knowledge." - Our Lady of the Roses, September 7, 1985

The awesome Bayside Prophecies... https://www.tldm.org/Bayside/default.htm
These prophecies came from Jesus, Mary, and the saints to Veronica Lueken at Bayside, NY, from 1968 to 1995:

A godless nation shall fall! . . .
"Without My Son you are lost. A godless nation shall fall. A nation that has been eaten away and rotted by sin shall fall. A nation that has turned itself back and regressed to a state of animal living bordering on all sins of the flesh and impurity; given over to all manner of seeking things of the world; power, lust, envy, hate, murders, abortions, worship of false idols; loving money, power, and lacking the instinct of survival when survival can only be reached by pleading from them to the merciful heart of the Eternal Father." - Our Lady, June 13, 1981

A great money disaster . . .
"My child and My children, pray a constant vigilance of prayer. Keep this going throughout the United States and all of the nations of the world, for there is little time left. Soon, in the plans of the Eternal Father, He shall set forth and allow to come upon mankind, a great money disaster. In this way it will prove to you that the disaster back in the 1920's, My children, was as nothing compared to what will happen now. I talk of a great depression coming upon mankind." - Jesus, October 1, 1988

Destruction of the world monetary systems . . .
"You will understand and broadcast the message to the world that there will be a great destruction in the monetary systems of the world. It will affect both the United States and Canada, and all the great powers of the world. And I repeat again: You will go to your stores to do your shopping carrying papers which may as well be newspapers, for the value they will have to purchase even food will be nil.
"How can a great country like the United States fall, you say, My child? You ask Me in your heart. I read your heart. I will tell you why. Because they have given themselves over to satan. When a country has lost its morality and seeks the pleasures of the flesh, giving over, themselves over, to all manner of abominations, like homosexuality, and condoning this up the highest courts of the land, then that country shall fall." - Our Lady, November 1, 1985

Gathering of the world's money to control the masses . . .
"Man shall not create a new world as he seeks. For there cannot be a lasting world without His God. And I speak not of the false idols and gods that man creates in his human nature! There is only one Creator.
"You who cast aside this knowledge and choose to set yourselves up by power and the gathering of the world's money to control the masses, you will find that all of your power and all of your volumes of gold and silver cannot hold back the heavens as they descend upon you in a just chastisement. The world, the earth shall tremble, fear shall come upon mankind as he watches the approach of the destruction that he himself has chosen to set loose." - Jesus, February 10, 1978

Evil force like an octopus . . .
"There is a great evil force now enshrouding your world; it is like an octopus reaching out in every direction to ensnare the world. It is a force of evil set up by satan. There are many arms of the octopus controlled by the monies of the world.
"For the love of money and riches, many will sell their souls to get to the head. O My children, what do you gain if you gather all of the riches of the world and destroy your soul. When you come over the veil, and you will come over the veil, what will you bring with you - nothing of the material. You must gather your riches in Heaven now. They are supernatural: the graces, the merits that will allow you to enter into the Kingdom of your God." - Our Lady, June 24, 1976

The Illuminati . . .
"There is a group in the United States and the world, a group that started many years ago, calling itself the Illuminati, coming from the word 'light bearer'. Naturally, My children, this light that they bear stands for Lucifer, and as such they have gone through the world secretly known as Luciferians. They have brought into your country, the United States, and your neighbor Canada, a group of witchcraft practices. Well have they laid their plan to destroy your children with drugs, using your school systems, your medias of communication, your newspapers, your televisions, your radios: every means of communication has been infiltrated by the member and sub-members of the Illuminati, a conglomeration of individuals and powers and principalities throughout the world, and banking systems. As you well know, My children, money has always been the root of all evil, and many have sold their souls to get to the head." - Our Lady, November 25, 1978

You are worshiping idols . . .
"My children, you must change your values back to the plan of your God. As a nation, as a country, as in many countries throughout the world, you have become paganized and immoral. My children, it is the gauge for the fall of mankind: immorality and paganism. No nation shall stand without its God, the God in Heaven.
     "Man is creating many new gods, gods to feed his human nature; and it is a basic carnal nature. Idolaters abound. When you worship in abundance things, My children, you are worshiping idols! If you spend your time gathering things, money, power, you are worshiping idols. Remove yourself from these worldly pursuits.
     "It is a narrow road to the Kingdom of your God, Heaven. Many are called but few are chosen. The road with satan is wide. Many walk it and can never leave, because there are too few prayers said for them and by them.
     "Nothing is impossible to your God. Man shall never reach the highest pinnacle of Heaven in knowledge." - Jesus, March 18, 1978

Many will sell their souls to get to the head . . .
"The road to Heaven, My children, is a narrow one; too few stay upon it. For they are often carried away with the cares of the world, and the pleasures of the materialistic pursuits, and their gathering of money and prestige and power. For what? For the few short years allotted to each human upon earth. I ask you to ask yourself: is it worth it to lose your soul? Many will sell their souls to get to the head." - Our Lady, November 20, 1979

Gather your graces . . .
"You cannot accept two masters. One you will love, and the other you will learn to hate. And remember, My children, where your treasures are, your heart will always lie. And better that you gather your treasures in a place where there is neither rusting, nor attacks by moths, and robbers cannot take them from you. Store your treasures in Heaven, My children. Gather your graces. You must ransom your soul and the souls of your children, your households. Do not wait expecting to be repatriated at the last moment, My children. Many are coming across the veil unprepared, and, sadly, they cannot be accepted into the Kingdom." - Jesus, August 5, 1977

Store canned goods, water and blankets . . .
"My children, I caution you now, and I wish that you remember these instructions from several years ago in earth's time that I gave to you, to keep in your homes a good supply of canned good. They have shelf value, My children, they will not spoil. But better that you keep them and they spoil than to have come upon you the great Chastisement. It will be a ball of fire which will ignite many of the chemicals that are being stored up for the destruction of the nations.
"My children, not only with the canned foods will you store just food, but you must also make known to your families and your friends that they had best keep blankets and water in tight containers; for there will be on the onset of the Chastisement, there will be nothing that you can buy due to contamination." - Our Lady, July 1, 1985

Read the Bayside Prophecies:
September 7, 1985 message -- World monetary crash: "One massive depression" (click here)

Directives...

D213 - Riches, Part 1 PDF
D214 - Riches, Part 2 PDF
D307 - Monetary crash PDF

Articles...

Credit crisis and stock markets:

Zuckerman compares current 'financial crunch' to Great Depression
https://www.tldm.org/News11/ZuckermanComparesCrisisToGreatDepression.htm

European, Asian markets plunge
https://www.tldm.org/News11/EuropeanAsianMarketsPlunge.htm

Subprime Nation
https://www.tldm.org/News11/SubprimeNation.htm

Leading lender H&R Block likens US credit crisis to Great Depression
https://www.tldm.org/News11/H&RBlockLikensCrisisToDepression.htm

Fed faces gigantic insolvency time bomb
https://www.tldm.org/News11/FedFacesInsolvencyTimeBomb.htm

Global money markets tighten on cash shortages
https://www.tldm.org/News11/GlobalMoneyMarketsTighten.htm

Dollar collapse, stock market sell-off looms
https://www.tldm.org/News11/StockMarketSell-offLooms.htm

No time to sit and watch: "What we have on our hands here, folks, is a full-blown, global financial crisis"
https://www.tldm.org/News11/GlobalFinancialCrisis.htm

World stock markets spiral lower
https://www.tldm.org/News11/WorldStockMarketsSpiral.htm

Fed OD’s on liquidity but risks depression
https://www.tldm.org/News11/FedRisksDepression.htm

U.S. Comptroller General: Learn from the fall of Rome
https://www.tldm.org/News11/ComptrollerGeneralFallOfRome.htm

Perfect storm of debt rattles Wall Street
https://www.tldm.org/News11/PerfectStormOfDebt.htm

Asian stocks tumble the most in five months on credit concern
https://www.tldm.org/News11/AsianStocksTumble.htm

Subprime panic points to taxpayer bailout
https://www.tldm.org/News11/SubprimePanicTaxpayerBailout.htm

Fed cowardice invites catastrophe
https://www.tldm.org/News11/FedCowardiceInvitesCatastrophe.htm

Foreign money props U.S. economy
https://www.tldm.org/News11/ForeignMoneyPropsUSEconomy.htm

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson: Coming financial crash shows need for immediate monetary reform
https://www.tldm.org/News11/PaulsonComingFinancialCrash.htm

Slow demise of the mighty greenback
https://www.tldm.org/News11/DemiseOfMightyGreenback.htm

Credit spree could cause 1930s-style depression
https://www.tldm.org/News11/CreditSpreeCouldCauseDepression.htm

Gloom gathers over U.S. economy
https://www.tldm.org/News10/GloomGathersUSEconomy.htm

It’s official: The crash of the U.S. economy has begun
https://www.tldm.org/News10/CrashOfUSEconomyHasBegun.htm

The plan to destroy America - via the dollar
https://www.tldm.org/News9/PlanToDestroyAmericaViaDollar.htm

Oil producers shun the dollar; Russia and Opec shift revenues into euros, yen and sterling
https://www.tldm.org/News9/OilProducersShunDollar.htm

U.S. Comptroller General warns the nation of economic calamity
https://www.tldm.org/news9/MonetaryCrashComptrollerGeneral.htm

Central banks caught in gold squeeze may crush dollar
https://www.tldm.org/News9/goldSqueezeMayCrushDollar.htm

Foreclosures:

US mortgage crisis creates 'ghost town' in Cleveland suburb
https://www.tldm.org/News11/MortgageCrisisCreatesGhostTownInClevelandSuburb.htm

Roach: ‘U.S. homes should fall 30 percent’
https://www.tldm.org/News11/RoachUSHomesShouldFall30Percent.htm

Foreclosure filings surge 68 percent
https://www.tldm.org/News11/ForeclosureFilingsSurge.htm

August 2007 report: 11 states have triple digit increases in foreclosures
https://www.tldm.org/News11/TripleDigitIncreasesInForeclosures.htm

New mortgage foreclosures set record
https://www.tldm.org/News11/MortgageForeclosuresSetRecord.htm

Shiller: U.S. housing woes could spur world slump
https://www.tldm.org/News11/HousingWoesCouldSpurWorldSlump.htm

Credit crunch hits the consumer — foreclosures double
https://www.tldm.org/News11/ForeclosuresDouble.htm

The worst isn't over in mortgage meltdown
https://www.tldm.org/News11/MortgageMeltdown.htm

Links...

Sub-prime lender says problems are on scale of Great Depression, [U.K.] Times Online, August 31, 2007
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2358099.ece

Video: Money expert Jim Cramer of CNBC - "They're nuts, they know nothing! ... In the fixed income market, we have Armageddon"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU

Wall Street tremors, Asian markets' tsunami, Forbes.com, August 10, 2007
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/08/10/asian-markets-roundup-markets-equity-cx_vk_0810markets03.html

World markets rattled amid Dow Jones crash, ABC News Australia, August 10, 2007
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/10/2001292.htm?section=business

Risky home loans run a fever, and the market prays it doesn't spread, U.S. News and World Report, July 15, 2007
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/070715/23subprime.htm

U.S. dollar facing imminent collapse? WorldNetDaily, December 10, 2006
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53311

USA Today report: Real federal deficit 3.5 trillion, Newsmax, August 3, 2006
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/8/3/123820.shtml?s=lh

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Your names have been written in Heaven… "It is not by accident that you are called by My Mother, for your names have been written in Heaven.... But with this great grace you have great responsibility to send this Message from Heaven throughout the world, for if you are able to recover just one more for Heaven, an additional star shall be placed in your crown." - Jesus, August 5, 1975

A great obligation to go forward... "It is not by accident that you are called by My Mother, for it is by merit and the prayers that have risen to Heaven for your salvation. For those who have received the grace to hear the Message from Heaven, you have a great obligation to go forward and bring this Message to your brothers and sisters. Do not expect a rest upon your earth, for you will have eternal rest very soon." - Jesus, June 12, 1976

The sin of omission... "The sin of omission shall condemn many to hell, be they layman or Hierarchy. I repeat: not the sin of commission, but the sin of omission will commit many to hell." Our Lady of the Roses, October 6, 1980

We encourage everyone to print or email copies of this web page to all the Bishops and all the clergy. Also, email or send this web page to the news media and as many people as possible.

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